Tuesday, February 7, 2012
How Will The American Economy Die?
Guest Post Russell D. Longcore
I have been writing about secession now at DumpDC.com since May of 2009. One of the constant themes of my writings is that secession is not going to happen in America until and unless the economy collapses. AFTER it collapses. A lot of what I’ve written has been perception, conjecture and prediction based in reason. But much of that conjecture and many of those predictions are now coming true. Tick. Tock. It’s not a case of “If,” like there was a possibility that America could avoid collapse. Now, it’s simply a countdown to inevitability.
The following is a plausible and likely scenario of the death of the American economy.
First, the money goes.
The world economic system is built upon two things: (1) fractional reserve banking and (2) fiat money. There is not one nation on earth that has a commodity-based money and currency. Keynesian economics, taught in nearly every college Econ curriculum, is so ubiquitous…so ingrained…that it is like the dye colors in your shirt. No amount of washing gets the dye out.
Is there a banker on earth that does not use fractional reserve banking? Money is created out of thin air and pumped into the world economy. It would be impossible without fiat currency…the currency considered to be money because some government says that it is. When your currency is backed by “the full faith and credit of” your government, and nothing else, and your government goes broke…your currency is not far behind. In the regular world, issuing paper money with nothing behind it is called “Counterfeiting.”
The power in Washington is built on those two things above and add a third: the US Dollar is the world reserve currency. Being the world reserve currency was brought about back in the early 1970s when Nixon negotiated a deal with the House of Saud, in which Nixon guaranteed the Saudis that he would protect their kingdom from their neighbors if they agreed to (a) use only the US Dollar to settle oil payments, and (b) use their surpluses to buy US Treasury debt instruments. Over time, the Dollar became the currency all nations used to settle all kinds of commercial transactions. This reserve status gave the USA a tremendous advantage over all other nations. The blowback of unintended consequences is that many foreign nations own trillions of US Debt, and that gives those nations leverage over Washington. For a good look at who owns US Debt, CLICK HERE.
Right now, in real time, Washington is making plans to make war upon the nation of Iran. They are using the excuse that they must keep Iran from possessing nuclear weapons. The reality behind the scenes is that Iran started an oil bourse (a commodity exchange) on Kish Island in 2008, specifically to begin trading their own oil in currencies other than the US Dollar. That is a grave threat to the reserve currency status of the Dollar. Previously, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein announced that Iraq was going to begin accepting payments for oil in Euros, not Dollars. What happened to him? Muamar Gaddafi of Libya was buying enormous quantities of gold bullion with the intention of creating an African dinar, a gold-backed money for all of the African nations to use. Where is Gaddafi now?
“But so what?” you may ask.
The only thing that maintains the purchasing power of the Dollar is its world reserve status. You already know that the Dollar has no precious metals backing it. The Dollar only has the “full faith and credit of the United States” behind it. But Washington is many dozens of trillion dollars in debt. Some estimate that the US has over $100 Trillion of debt. Just a week ago, the United States current Federal budget debt limit reached $15 Trillion, and that is equal to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the entire nation. So we owe more now than we take in annually.
Any action by any other nation that threatens the world reserve currency status of the US Dollar panics Washington. They must snuff it out by whatever means necessary. Even war.
But they cannot.
Iran has powerful friends around the globe. Just last week, Iran inked a deal with India to sell them oil for gold. Iran will do the same with China. Russia will pay with gold and rubles. And, because Iran sits on an ocean of oil, and many nations rely upon its oil for survival, Iran will defeat Washington and its allies who have set up embargoes against Iran.
The whole world does not have to forsake the Dollar all at once to send shock waves through Washington. But more and more nations are rejecting the terms of the DC/European embargo against Iran. On Thursday, Turkey announced that they would not participate in the embargo. Turkey is a very crucial ally to DC. One at a time, nations will find that they can do business around the world in their own currencies or in gold.
But here’s another unintended consequence, and a potential trigger for the collapse of the Dollar. As nation after nation decide they do not need the Dollar, they will do what they can to rid themselves of American currency and American debt. Nations around the globe have purchased US Treasuries. Now they will have no need for the bonds, and will want to sell them. Questions come up: Who will buy them? And what are they worth?
What happens when you offer bonds for sale and no one buys them? You have very expensive wallpaper or toilet paper. What happens when you CAN sell them, but at pennies on the Dollar? You take staggering losses.
One other problem is timing. In order to reclaim some value for US Treasuries, your nation’s bond traders must have perfect timing to offer enough bonds for sale but not so many that it triggers a bond market collapse. Then to find buyers at acceptable prices? It is not reasonable to believe that every nation will find buyers at all, at good prices and not create a bond market crash.
So, built into the global process of forsaking the US Dollar as the world reserve currency are the seeds of the Dollar’s collapse. Either the bond market collapses as nations get out of the Dollar, or getting out of the Dollar causes the value of the Dollar to collapse. Keep in mind that if the Dollar were as “good as gold,” no nation would want to jettison the Dollar.
Dear Readers, there is no third choice that prevents the collapse of the Dollar.
What Does Collapse Mean?
There can only be one meaning for the word “collapse.” Hyperinflation is that collapse. Think about it. Inflation is the loss of purchasing power. Inflation that occurs over decades is like death by a thousand cuts. Americans for the last 80-plus years are used to inflation and the loss of their purchasing power. In hyperinflation, what took perhaps 40 years to lose a certain amount of purchasing power can easily happen in 40 days…or even 40 hours. There will come a day soon here in America when the Dollar will not be accepted between buyers and sellers for even the simplest transactions. It happened in Zimbabwe. I presently own 160 Trillion in Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe currency, and I paid six dollars for it.
The American Dollar has purchasing power…value…now because the world uses it. And the nation with world reserve currency status that is inflating its money will continue to pay its debts with fiat currency, which is losing more and more value. Once an unknown number of nations stop…or even just slow down…using the Dollar for international trade, the value of the Dollar will evaporate. I say “unknown” because it’s not just the number of nations that is important. It is the economic might of the nations that stop using the Dollar. If the BRIC nations…Brazil, Russia, India and China…arguably the four strongest non-USA world economies...continue the process of weaning themselves off the Dollar, it will have drastic and sudden repercussions for the Dollar.
Also remember how this world turns. The business day in Berlin, Rome or Athens is six hours ahead of the American East Coast. A bond market collapse could start in a European bond market at 9:00 am in Berlin while it’s 3:00 am in New York. The Dollar could get hammered on foreign markets for six hours before the banks open in New York, or the New York Stock Exchange opens for business at 9:30 am. Americans will be completely defenseless against the collapse.
The politicians in DC will be powerless to stop the financial carnage because they cannot control the value of a currency that others refuse to use. The Federal Reserve may pump additional trillions of greenbacks into the American economy, but at some point, wheelbarrow loads of paper money won’t buy you a loaf of bread. This will cause the Federal bureaucracy to grind to a halt as Federal union employees refuse to work for worthless money. And how will Washington pay its military personnel? How will state governments pay their law enforcement officers and prison guards? Society will collapse at that time. It will be The End Of The World As We Know It.
You see, when the VALUE of the American Dollar ceases to exist, our bubble society will also cease to exist. This is why I hold the position that once the economic system in America fails, Washington will be entirely unable to stop secession. And that only the collapse of the Dollar will trigger the desire for secession.
Here is the mental picture I want you to form when thinking about the world economic system. Blowing soap bubbles. You dip a drinking straw into the bubble liquid and begin blowing on the dry end of the straw. Hundreds of bubbles of many sizes will form, expand and then pop. For a hundred years the world has experienced economic bubble after bubble…boom, bust, recession, depression, real estate, housing, tech stocks, mortgages but to name a few. But don’t miss this! When fractional reserve banking and fiat money run the world, ALL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY IS A BUBBLE that must eventually burst.
This has been a hard article to write. The subject is one of life or death for billions around the world, and millions on our own continent. I take no joy or satisfaction in this article, save the satisfaction of knowing that some of you will read this and act to save yourself and your family.
Think. Use your brain. Do not let anyone tell you how to think. Question ALL authority. Free Your Mind.
Secession is the only hope for humanity. Who will be first?